A radio guest once explained to a DJ, why he was lucky not to be late for their live interview. The guest used the underground to avoid traffic delays and indeed the trip began well. The guest exited his subway car not only at the correct station but also comfortably ahead of schedule. However on leaving the platform he looked up to see a sign which stated 'Dogs MUST be carried on escalator'. The guest then described his frantic panic as he searched high and low through the teeming flow of passengers for more than 40 minutes trying to find a dog somewhere in the crowd. When he was finally successful the guest then needed another 20 minutes to convince the dog's owner to briefly lend him the mutt so he could ride the escalator up out of the station. This anecjoke™© was obviously a mischievous farce but the point was clear enough; sometimes the key issue is not the message itself but how the message is presented and understood.
Since 1953, Kim Il-Sung, Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Un have, in succession, ruthlessly enforced and desperately clung to ideologies which China slowly relaxed back in 1978 and which the Soviet Union dropped like a hot potato in 1989. Unfortunately for North Korea's long-suffering citizens, the Kim dynasty fails to realise that Stalinist personality cults are simply not like flared pants, which you can obstinately cling onto for three decades until they finally come back into fashion.
Vitaly Mansky's critically acclaimed documentary "Under The Sun" portrays an 8 year old schoolgirl named Zinmi preparing to join the NK Children's Union. Zinmi's class is taught how Kim Il-Sung defeated the US forces of evil by crushing them under a huge boulder. The same evil US forces are, even now, preparing to kill Zinmi's parents as they sleep in their beds if they let their guard down for just an instant. The only hope for Zinmi's family to live a long, happy, secure life together is under the protection of Super Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/for-north-koreas-kims-its-never-too-soon-to-start-brainwashing/2015/01/15/a23871c6-9a67-11e4-86a3-1b56f64925f6_story.html?utm_term=.37a3c5283dcc
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/21/life-in-north-korea-the-early-years
After 65 years of such relentless indoctrination, news of Kim's June meeting with Mr T in Singapore required a very careful spin to ensure the correct understanding by Kim's subjects back home. Kim's earlier meetings with South Korea's Moon Jae-In and China's Xi Jin-Ping were only reported in NK after the meetings were successfully completed and all the video footage had been edited to maximise its propaganda value. By contrast the meeting with Mr T was heralded in advance during prime time, to show Kim's elevation to top tier international statesman, confidently buoyed by his much-vaunted nuclear deterrent, which he would use to negotiate from a position of strength. Certainly there was no mention of impending new rounds of punishing international sanctions against NK or a three line whip issued by the Giant Panda next door to "...play nicely or else".
 |
| Risky Business : a tricky first date |
After a somewhat hairy 2017 characterised by disappointing elections and escalating military tension around the globe, diffusing tension in Korea actually offers several presidents the chance to finally deliver what we expect from heads of state engaging maturely in global politics in the 21st century.
South Korea's Pres. Moon
From his inauguration in May 2017, SK's President Moon Jae-In personally redefined the expression 'to hit the ground running', working urgently to shrug off decades of ingrained government cynicism and antipathy towards North Korea. Despite fierce criticism from the conservative right, including accusations of reckless foolishness, being a NK stooge and upsetting US sentiment, Moon re-opened dialogue with NK's Super Supreme Leader Kim Jung-Un in May 2017 when NK missile launches had reached an alarming 3 per month. After this rapprochement , launches reduced to 2 per month until August and then only one each in September and November - although the last of these confirmed the potential to reach the continental US.
From his inauguration in May 2017, SK's President Moon Jae-In personally redefined the expression 'to hit the ground running', working urgently to shrug off decades of ingrained government cynicism and antipathy towards North Korea. Despite fierce criticism from the conservative right, including accusations of reckless foolishness, being a NK stooge and upsetting US sentiment, Moon re-opened dialogue with NK's Super Supreme Leader Kim Jung-Un in May 2017 when NK missile launches had reached an alarming 3 per month. After this rapprochement , launches reduced to 2 per month until August and then only one each in September and November - although the last of these confirmed the potential to reach the continental US.
By January 2018, the Koreas re-established a long-abandoned hotline for direct communication and SK secured US agreement to postpone the regular 'Foal Eagle' combined forces military drills which NK (rightly or wrongly) interprets as preparations for an invasion.
By February 2018 NK had not only accepted an invitation to participate in SK's upcoming Winter Olympic Games but Kim JongUn's highly photogenic younger sister Kim Yo-Jong attended as a high-level emissary, becoming the first member of the Kim dynasty to visit SK since the cease fire was brokered in 1953.
 |
| Kim Yo-Jong and Moon Jae-In at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics |
 |
| "U.S. Vice President Mike Pence ... who seemed to go out of [his] way to not acknowledge the North Koreans despite sitting just few feet (meters) away" https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/winter-olympics-kim-jong-un-sister-north-south-korea-5060537/ |
Through all of this Pres. Moon had to delicately spin the news of his progress via SK's respectfully dubious media to its vociferously skeptical audience. It is a fine balance; on the one hand to lead people one small step at a time so as not to make them nervous but on the other hand, asking them to consider the much bigger picture; the prize of a meaningful peace.
China's Pres. Xi
Meanwhile many political observers spent 2017 watching NK missile launches and underground nuclear tests, scratching their heads, wondering why China was not using its undoubted influence to rein in NK's bellicose and increasingly daring Kim Kong.
Frustrated criticism came thick and fast reminding China of its responsibility to show a united front with the global community.
Things eventually became clear in Feb 2018 when China unsportingly announced an end to presidential term limits. Behind closed doors the National People's Congress had been quietly voting for (ironically) less frequent Presidential elections and then deciding how this should be spun to ensure it was correctly understood at home and abroad.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2136740/china-ends-presidential-term-limits-what-other-changes
With its own house in order, Pres. Xi JinPing then wasted no time summoning Kim Jong-Un to Bejing for three days to explain that re-ignition of the Korean war was not how China wants to begin NEoX; the New Era of Xi. It was now high time for young Kim to put his missiles away and get along with his neighbours - or to face Panda Rage on the world stage.
Much less discussed is SK's deployment of THAAD, the US' Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system; essentially a powerful radar imager which detects ballistic missile launches, extrapolates their trajectory and then fires interceptor missiles to knock them out in flight. China objects to THAAD being stationed in SK, arguing it can spy directly on China's own military operations. China's first response was to put SK in the dog house for deploying the system, unofficially boycotting SK products, businesses and celebrities within China and halving the usual 8m Chinese tourists from visiting SK .
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180626000649&ACE_SEARCH=1
As painful and expensive as this was, SK actively encouraged tourism from other nations in an attempt to ride out the storm until Nov 2017 when China lifted these restrictions in exchange for SK promises not to develop THAAD any further.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2120452/china-wins-its-war-against-south-koreas-us-thaad-missile
https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/is-the-us-south-korea-alliance-in-trouble/
The US and Mr T
The US Republican Party and SK's Pres. Moon recently suggested that Mr T be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in the warming of relations with NK. Naturally many object but we can all agree that even if Mr T does not deserve the prize the most, he would certainly enjoy it the most and he would definitely milk it the most.
If nothing else, Mr T is an actor, quite possibly an exquisite, sublime, Oscar-worthy actor. However disappointing his administration may be, in the matter of North Korea, Mr T has played the role of President very well, perhaps even reassuringly responsibly, so far. Admittedly the world gasped at the immaturity of his opening lines; school-playground name-calling such as "I would never call him 'short' and 'fat' " and "Little Rocket Man". But oh-how-much we relished NK's lofty, scholarly retort of "Dotard". Never was a spat squashed so quickly and so decisively.
Next Mr T had us on the edge of our seats promising to send the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the region to 'show resolve' while simultaneously initiating drills to evacuate all US personnel from the Korean peninsular. Evidently Mr T had learned that he too can fake the news; with this sly bluff he misdirected the world's attention with chest-beating puffery while the USS Carl Vinson quietly continued to San Diego as planned. Finally as Mr T's speech-writer brought us to an incendiary climax with threats of "fire and fury, the likes of which the world has never seen", Mr T personally improvised with a return to the playground; "My nuclear button is bigger than yours - and it works !".
Through all of this Mr T is to be congratulated for playing out his John Wayne/Gary Cooper/James Stewart alter ego without actually attempting a military solution. Like previous presidents he seems to have listened to strategists' advice which concludes there is no military solution in which Seoul can be saved.
After all Seoul city includes 25m people living only 30 miles from the DMZ. This distance can be covered in 30 minutes by tanks at full speed or less than 3 minutes for the slowest regular rockets. In the event of hostilities, even the most modern technology could not prevent large parts of Seoul being levelled in hours - and with it ~230,000 US troops and english teachers. Not something for a president to blemish his CV with unnecessarily.
http://time.com/4751933/south-korea-evacuation-exercise-military/
As the 12 June Kim-Trump summit in Singapore approached, most media tried to show Mr T as inexperienced and ill-prepared. How much did he know about the history of the Korean war, about NK's military, did he think he could sign a peace treaty, how would he know if Kim could be trusted, how much time would Mr T need to assess Kim ? Mr T batted back the questions with the measured contempt they deserved; they were designed to trip him up and garner ignorant, arrogant or otherwise embarrassing sound-bites at a time when he needed to remain calm, focused and to stay within his remit.
Ultimately Mr T did exactly what was required of a president; he flew in, shook hands, had lunch, signed some papers, showed off his limo and flew back - in time for his birthday 2 days later. Rocket launches have been postponed in return for military exercises put on hold. Against expectations, in a very difficult situation, as the world held its breath, Mr T delivered, presidentially.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/06/25/trump-kim-summit-assessment.html
It is still far from clear if Kim Jong-Un is sincere about resetting NK's relationship with the rest of the world. This and any steps towards a peace on the peninsular would require a lot of hard work over a long time by many dedicated specialists. However all sides are now talking at senior levels and with a regularity not seen in decades. Unless and until it fails, 12 June 2018 may be one of the first real Apollo 11 moments of the new millennium; one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. One thing is already certain; Mr T may survive a term or two, but inevitably he will be a note in the margin. Meanwhile, NEoX, the New Era of Xi, is already firmly established and well underway.
As the 12 June Kim-Trump summit in Singapore approached, most media tried to show Mr T as inexperienced and ill-prepared. How much did he know about the history of the Korean war, about NK's military, did he think he could sign a peace treaty, how would he know if Kim could be trusted, how much time would Mr T need to assess Kim ? Mr T batted back the questions with the measured contempt they deserved; they were designed to trip him up and garner ignorant, arrogant or otherwise embarrassing sound-bites at a time when he needed to remain calm, focused and to stay within his remit.
Ultimately Mr T did exactly what was required of a president; he flew in, shook hands, had lunch, signed some papers, showed off his limo and flew back - in time for his birthday 2 days later. Rocket launches have been postponed in return for military exercises put on hold. Against expectations, in a very difficult situation, as the world held its breath, Mr T delivered, presidentially.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/06/25/trump-kim-summit-assessment.html
It is still far from clear if Kim Jong-Un is sincere about resetting NK's relationship with the rest of the world. This and any steps towards a peace on the peninsular would require a lot of hard work over a long time by many dedicated specialists. However all sides are now talking at senior levels and with a regularity not seen in decades. Unless and until it fails, 12 June 2018 may be one of the first real Apollo 11 moments of the new millennium; one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. One thing is already certain; Mr T may survive a term or two, but inevitably he will be a note in the margin. Meanwhile, NEoX, the New Era of Xi, is already firmly established and well underway.
 |
| A hard act to follow: the constitution of China now updated to include 'Xi JinPing Thought' |
